SDVOSB Win Probability Estimator
Enter your NAICS sector, contracting agency, contract value, past performance strength, incumbent situation, and set-aside type to get a directional competition level estimate and actionable bid/no-bid guidance.
Estimate your win probability
Select the sector most closely matching the contract's primary NAICS code
Select the primary agency or department posting the requirement
Use the total contract value including all option periods
Count only contracts in the same or closely adjacent NAICS/PSC code
Are you the current performer, or is another firm?
How is the agency expected to structure this acquisition?
This estimator uses a scoring model based on general federal market patterns and does not access live FPDS or SAM.gov data. Scores are directional estimates, not guarantees. Win probability varies significantly based on solicitation-specific factors, proposal quality, and pricing. Use as a bid/no-bid screening tool, not a final decision.
How the scoring model works
Competition level reference
How each competition level maps to practical bid/no-bid strategy on SDVOSB set-aside contracts.
| Score | Level | Win probability | Typical profile | Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8–10 | Low | 70–90% | Incumbent recompete, sole-source candidate, niche cleared market | Bid confidently; focus on maintaining relationships and writing a strong technical approach |
| 6–7 | Moderate | 45–70% | Strong past performance, mid-size contract, favorable set-aside | Bid if positioned; differentiate technical approach and price competitively |
| 4–5 | High | 25–45% | Open competition, limited past performance, or competing vs. incumbent | Bid only with a clear win theme; address weakest factors before submitting |
| 1–3 | Very High | 5–25% | Full-and-open on large award, no past performance, or extremely crowded sector | Consider no-bid or teaming; resources better deployed on higher-probability opportunities |
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors determine win probability on an SDVOSB set-aside contract?
Six primary factors drive win probability on SDVOSB set-aside contracts: (1) NAICS sector competition density — cybersecurity and IT have far more qualified SDVOSBs than construction or R&D; (2) contracting agency — the VA's Veterans First program and DoD set-aside volume directly affect how many firms are pursuing the same dollars; (3) contract value — smaller awards attract fewer capable competitors; (4) past performance strength — documented CPARS records are often required or heavily weighted; (5) incumbent status — incumbents win roughly 80–85% of recompetes on average; and (6) set-aside type — sole-source versus competitive SDVOSB versus full-and-open competition dramatically changes the competitive landscape.
How does being an incumbent affect SDVOSB win probability?
Incumbency is the single most powerful win factor in federal contracting. Across all contract types, incumbents win approximately 80–85% of recompetes. This advantage comes from deep mission knowledge, established relationships with the contracting officer and program office, and the agency's aversion to transition risk. Incumbents also typically have superior technical approach depth and can write from direct experience rather than inference. If you are the incumbent, your default win probability is substantially higher than even the most qualified challenger.
How is SDVOSB competition density different from NAICS code to NAICS code?
SDVOSB competition density varies widely by sector. Cybersecurity, IT services, and management consulting have the highest concentration of SDVOSB-certified firms because the capital requirements are low and many veterans transition directly into these roles. Construction, advanced R&D, and defense electronics have much lower SDVOSB density because they require specialized facilities, equipment, or workforce. SOF and intelligence advisory services sit in the middle — the market is competitive but naturally thinned by active clearance requirements. Understanding the density of qualified SDVOSBs in your target NAICS code is critical for realistic bid/no-bid decisions.
Why does contract size affect win probability?
Contract size determines which firms can realistically compete. Awards under $250K typically attract only a handful of competitors because the revenue potential doesn't justify heavy bid investment from larger firms. Awards between $2M and $10M are the most competitive SDVOSB range — large enough to attract many firms, small enough that most SDVOSBs can theoretically perform. Awards above $10M typically require GWAC/IDIQ contract vehicle access, demonstrable scalability, and richer past performance records, which naturally reduces the pool of qualified SDVOSB competitors to those with prior experience at that scale.
What counts as 'relevant' past performance for an SDVOSB contract?
Relevant past performance means contracts in the same or closely adjacent NAICS/PSC code, performed for a federal government customer, at a comparable scope and complexity. Most evaluation criteria define relevance as: (1) similar in size (within 50–150% of the solicited contract value), (2) similar in scope (same work type and technical requirements), and (3) recent (typically within 3–5 years). Private-sector contracts, subcontracting experience without a CPARS record, and very small contracts on large solicitations may score poorly or be disqualified as references. The Government-wide CPARS database is the primary source evaluators use.
Can I request that a federal contract be set aside for SDVOSB competition?
Yes. Any interested party can request that a contracting officer conduct market research to determine whether two or more qualified SDVOSB firms can meet the requirement at fair market price — the '2-in-1 rule' under FAR 19.14. The most effective way to influence set-aside decisions is to engage early through Requests for Information (RFIs), industry days, and direct outreach to the contracting officer or small business specialist before the solicitation is posted. Providing market research demonstrating SDVOSB capability strengthens the case. VA contracting offices follow even stronger set-aside preferences under the Veterans First Contracting Program.
What is a 'sole source' SDVOSB award and when is it available?
A sole-source SDVOSB award is a contract awarded without competition to a single SDVOSB firm, justified under FAR 19.1406 when: (1) only one SDVOSB can satisfy the agency's requirements, (2) the contract value is below applicable thresholds ($7M for services, $4M for manufacturing as of 2024 FAR updates), and (3) the price is fair and reasonable. VA contracts follow a slightly different sole-source authority under the Veterans First program. Sole-source awards are relatively rare and typically require documented market research showing no other SDVOSB can meet the requirement.
How do I find out who the incumbent is on a contract I'm pursuing?
The fastest sources are: (1) FPDS-NG — search by agency and PSC/NAICS for recent awards at that location or program office; (2) SAM.gov — search for the follow-on solicitation and review attached performance work statements for references to the current contractor; (3) USAspending.gov — search by program, agency, and funding office for current award holders; (4) beta.SAM.gov 'Opportunities' section — predecessor contracts are sometimes referenced directly in the solicitation; and (5) agency small business offices — they may disclose public information about current performers. Knowing the incumbent early allows you to develop a targeted differentiation strategy.
Related resources
Get pre-RFP intelligence before the competition
Signals tracking new SDVOSB set-aside opportunities — delivered before the RFP drops so you can start building your win strategy early.
Subscribe to the Brief